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By rights, West Coast should be favorites in the AFL Grand Final, but in terms of salary, draft and national expansion, the best money is on Hawthorn’s three-peat, says Jack Kerr.
Afl Grand Final Odds 2015
The AFL finds itself in a very unpredictable position at the moment. In times of wage shortages, inventions, wealth redistribution and national expansion, we can have a nine-year window defined by three roofs.
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Good money is on Hawthorn to bounce back when they finish at the MCG tomorrow afternoon. Even Michael Tuck’s Hawks could not make such a play, and they played in eight of the nine games at the same time.
Which goes to show you that such long-term success is rare. The VFL has no shortage of back-to-back premierships, but very few have managed to add a third (and, in one instance, a fourth) to their finals.
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And all this happened under prime ministers like Alfred Deakin, Robert Menzies and James Scullin (no, I’ve never heard of him either), when there were only 12 teams in the competition, and KPMG was that thing you see it alphabetically. soup, but not in the football field.
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In 2003, the Brisbane Lions won the first treble since rock ‘n’ roll arrived on these shores. The newly merged team had great help from league headquarters to help them get set up, and they used it. (They got a lot of help from Port Adelaide, their opponents too.)
Hawthorn had no such legs. There is no funny money going around Glenferrie Oval, and we haven’t heard a single word from ASADA. Well, Hawthorn were able to use their senior players and good management, turning a huge deficit into a huge success. Struggling teams don’t need priority: they need to spend time at Glenferrie Oval.
In Alastair Clarkson, they have a creative, influential, ahem, passionate coach. And the teachers are quiet, considering the number of competitive coaches they produce. It is already. They all look very nice.
If Hawthorn win tomorrow, they will undoubtedly be seen as a better team than Brisbane at the start of the last decade. Besides, this team has a 2008 flag in its name. And they could have helped more. A few gray hairs may appear, but there is little reason to believe that they will not be noticed next year. And after that, who knows.
Afl Grand Final 2015
Another thing the Hawks will be happy about is their success. Not in front of the goal, but on the big stage. Of the 18 major finals they have played in so far, they have won all but six. Compare that to Collingwood, who needed 45 appearances (including replays) to win 15 flags.
Of course, the Hawks still had to get past West Coast tomorrow for all of this to count.
By rights, the Eagles should be more popular (and not just in the western part of the country). They have lost just twice in half of the football season, and most of those games are against other winners. A record comparable to the Hawks, and it’s no surprise that the Eagles finished above them on the ladder.
The most worrisome blemish on the Eagles’ recent record is the home loss to the Hawks, although they responded with fear and aggression in the final game. A 32 point margin over the Hawks tells you how strong the Eagles were.
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(And for those who say you can’t win a grand final until first, explain: Brisbane in 2001, Port Adelaide in 2004, Sydney in 2005, Geelong in 2007 and the Hawthorn side in 2008.)
Obviously playing at the MCG is very different to playing in Subiaco. Just ask Jordan Lewis, who said his team was “terrified” playing there in the first week of the finals.
And if there is one asterisk in the three-peat hawthorn, this is it. In fact, the Hawks have to go to Perth this week, as they were supposed to be in Sydney for last year’s big game. It would have been a very different story if that had been the case.
But if the AFL unit is cold for Hawthorn’s win tomorrow, so is everyone else. Although I am still waiting.
