Melbourne Cup Trophy 2016 – It’s not the Melbourne Cup by any means, but come 3pm on Tuesday, the eyes of the nation will rightly be on the fabled Flemington.
The Brit, who was fifth in the $61 odds at the spectacular 2015 Cup, is in fine form after leading the way. Since then he has been on a four-race run, the first of which was in Dubai over 3200m when he fell to French great Wazirabad.
Melbourne Cup Trophy 2016
In his next outing, the 6YO was under early pressure and beaten 9L by Exospheric in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, but they forgot the track was soft and he had to keep his bones dry. He turned the tables next time out in the G2 Princess of Wales Stakes (2400m), rolling nicely ahead of James Macdonald and holding on to beat Group One star The Gray Gatsby.
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He looked lost in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3200m) but was too strong in the closing stages to bounce back, 61k in the process. It is well drawn and looks relatively well handicapped at 57kg.
An outsider who won the G1 Doomben Cup (2000m) this winter. He followed up with a strong effort in the G1 Makybe Diva (1600m) before being beaten by Hartnell and Jamaica in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m). He turned in one of his better runs in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) when he got up early in the straight but crossed the line for 5.3L sixth.
I suspect he is looking for the two miles and Dwayne Dunn should get a good run of 7 but not a chance to win, especially if some of them too much weight.
A nine-year-old Japanese boy, who will become the oldest winner of the trophy, must salute. Surprisingly, he only won at 1800m and 2000m, but placed twice in the G1 Teno Show (3200m). In May I enjoyed the third rail of a lovely run under Tommy Berry when he looked like an all-money house but was quickly beaten by Kitasan Black (last year’s trophy favorite Game of Fame was one of the successful brigade). He has only averaged two 2200m efforts since.
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It’s the perfect horse shrimp. Residents of Japan are rightly considered “various sauces” and in 2010 In 2014 he raced against the likes of Flintshire and Gold Ship. However, I think his best race is behind him and although he can box well, it is not a chance for me to win.
In the year The 2015 Cup 6.2L was 16th as a $21 chance, but not a real guide to last year’s race. It was only his sixth start in the Cup and Aidan O’Brien’s son of Galileo is still a relay full of race to spare, lined up here for his 11th start.
He was a last-to-first freshman winner over 2500m in Limerick before having just two rivals in the 2800m Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan. He was excellent at $1.11F but that was a minor issue.5YO finished third in two 2400m G3 races at Leopardstown this campaign. Carried 62.5kg for winner Stellar Miss, first in the Ballyroan Stakes, he returned to the race and was well trucked but crowded for class and finished by a touch in the straight.
He stopped again in the last field game but hit the line hard in the Enterprise Stakes behind class pair Zhukova and US Army Ranger – that form looks good for this one. The Bondi Beach race looks a bit tight from the inside as he tends to get stuck in traffic, but he has one of the best jockeys in the world in Ryan Moore to guide him around the two miles at Flemington. A class animal with many skills.
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British stay bought by Australian leagues to support the two biggest trophies. Twice over 2000m and once over 2400m, this 5YO shouldn’t be cracked over two miles.
Beaten by Big Orange in the G2 Jockey Club Stakes (2400m) at Newmarket but suspect the former was not suited to track conditions on the day. He took part in the top rated race of the world at York in the G1 Juddmonte International (2080m) and was untroubled, losing 4.5L behind the son of Dubavian Superstar (Highland Real third). He saw an opportunity in the 200m but looked too high late on and couldn’t sustain the effort in such a beast category.
A good effort on his first Australian start in the G1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) when he was discovered early and came in but still managed to hit the line for a 3.75L third (seemed to rest his tongue a bit too?). Three-time cup-winning hopeful Damien Oliver’s experience is a plus.
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He beat Caulfield Cup winner Jamaica in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and finished a distant but calculated winx in the G1 Cox Plate (2000m), boasting the strongest home form of any Cup runner. In the year Won the G1 BMW (2400 m) in autumn 2015.
The Godolphin gelding was average when leading in last year’s G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) but is a two-mile winner in England (beating the next Williams, winning our century in a poor Bendigo Cup recently). This impressive chestnut worked well last spring without winning, but in 2016 he went to a new level. In recent years he has gained an impressive reputation in Australian racing.
This domineering boy likes to run in the races and then attack his opponents with a sword in a brutal run. If there’s any chink in this guy’s armor, it’s that he resents early pressure, so if he’s forced out of his comfort zone early, he could drop that speed. That said, Hartnell looks ridiculously good at 56kg – he must be overweight.
G1 Oakland Cup winner over two miles with a bloody name! Excellent 3200m form, third in the 2014 Melbourne Cup behind Protectionist and Red Cadeaux and a nose second in the 2015 G1 Sydney Cup (3200m) to go with an Auckland Cup win (also 4th in last year’s Sydney Cup and 11 here last year behind Prince. of Penzance).
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On paper, Chris Waller’s battle-hardened gelding looked a big chance in the G1 Metropolitan (2400m), but he came home from Sir John Howwood’s 3.4L Astern. He took a good place in the run but couldn’t quite stop Grand Marshall (1kg heavier than him) after being beaten in front too far from home in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup. A very honest horse and will be famous not only because of the name but also because Hugh Bowman works as the bull.
British 8YO flat mixed breed jumper that handles all track conditions. It has improved a lot recently and it definitely seems to be on an upward spiral. Beaten by 3.25L Big Orange and Pallasator in the G2 Goodwood Cup (3200m) and set well on the pace. I came a long way back in the G3 Londsale Cup (3300m) but wanted to travel sweetly to get into the race before being beaten late by Quest For More and Pallasator.
The son of Bit Hollow made his G1 debut in the Irish St Leger (2800m) at the Curragh on September 11, beating smaller fields including the Order of St George and the Trip to Paris .
I have great respect for this stable after the way Max Dynamite ran last year and I have a feeling that all-conquering Willie Mullins knows the kind of horse he needs to tackle the Flemington 3200m conundrum. Champion jockey Frankie Dettori will lead (perhaps riding with more restraint after stacking half the field on Max Dynamite last year?). Definitely the main player here.
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American-bred (Forgive/Forget) who won a fine edition of last year’s G3 Geelong Cup (2400m) before finishing 18th in the Melbourne Cup. Half a day later, the Listed Sandown Cup (3200m) was impressive from the provider and grand marshal, given a good ground-saving trip by Michael Walker and galloping away as the race approached.
He was only fair in the fall but when sent the $71 chance had easily one of Jameka’s best Caulfield Cup runs, nipping at his heels before finishing strongly (11.92s last 200m race best).
Walker rides it from the wide gate for a chance but it’s safe.
